• DAY2 ENHANCED RISK GA/SC

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Wed Sep 25 09:34:00 2024
    ACUS02 KWNS 250554
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 250552

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
    SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN SC COASTAL VICINITY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern
    Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone
    tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central
    Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands
    and Low Country of South Carolina.

    ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC...

    Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center
    has Helene making landfall in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend
    Thursday evening. As the storm tracks northward across the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico, low and mid level flow fields will increase from
    central FL into southeast GA and coastal SC during the day. Forecast
    soundings from most forecast guidance show very large, favorably
    curved low-level hodographs for rotating supercells within
    convective bands well east/northeast of the center of Helene.
    Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s F,
    resulting in greater than 125 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE from north FL into
    southeast GA and southern coastal SC. Furthermore, looking at
    historical tropical cyclone tornado data, adjusting for the expected track/storm motion of Helene and even distance from the center,
    previous cyclone analogs have produced several tornadoes within the
    favored northeast quadrant. Given a consistent, favorable signal
    across ensemble, deterministic, CAMs and calibrated guidance, an
    Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been included, driven by a 10
    percent tornado probability, across southeast GA into southern
    coastal SC.

    ..Leitman.. 09/25/2024

    $$
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