• DAY1 ENHANCED RISK FLGASC

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Thu Sep 26 08:51:00 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 261256
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 261255

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

    Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
    AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal
    Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat
    is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the
    Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North
    Carolina.

    ...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas...
    Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early
    this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate
    over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight,
    with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening.
    Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more
    track, intensity, and impact details.

    Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed,
    an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the
    Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South
    Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina
    tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already
    supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z
    observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However,
    this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening.
    Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH
    increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support
    tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to
    develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado
    potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight.

    ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024

    $$
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