• Helene Heads for Big Bend

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Thu Sep 26 18:08:00 2024
    490
    WTNT34 KNHC 262042
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 14
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
    500 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

    ...HELENE IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE...

    ...DAMAGING HURRICANE WINDS AND CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE
    EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING...

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...27.9N 84.6W
    ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
    ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
    * Tampa Bay
    * Charlotte Harbor

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Anclote River to Mexico Beach

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
    * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
    * West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
    * Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
    * Lake Okeechobee

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
    a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
    located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
    protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
    other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
    instructions from local officials.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
    and property should be rushed to completion.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
    outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
    your national meteorological service.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located
    near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. Helene is moving
    toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued fast
    motion to the north-northeast is expected through landfall in the
    Florida Big Bend this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to
    turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on
    Friday and Saturday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Helene is a category 3 hurricane on the
    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
    expected, and Helene will likely be an extremely dangerous category
    4 hurricane at landfall. Weakening is expected after Helene moves
    inland, but the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging
    winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
    southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
    southern Appalachians.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
    (500 km). A weather station at Venice Municipal Airport recently
    reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 69 mph
    (111 km/h). Another observation near Venice Beach reported a
    sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

    The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
    Force Hurricane Hunters is 951 mb (28.09 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
    the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
    by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
    reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
    areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
    Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
    Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
    Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
    Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
    Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
    Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
    Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
    East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
    Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
    Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
    accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
    depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
    and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
    specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
    National Weather Service forecast office.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
    please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
    available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
    area this evening. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the
    southern and central Florida, and these conditions are expected to
    spread northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the
    Southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds,
    especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the
    higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

    RAINFALL: Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
    of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
    rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
    life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
    river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
    steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

    For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
    this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
    WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html .

    TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes continues through
    tonight over much of Florida, southeast Georgia, central and
    southern South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. The tornado
    risk will continue Friday across the Carolinas and southern
    Virginia.

    SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
    the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
    days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
    rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
    weather office.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)