• Heavy Rain/Flooding SC/NC

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Fri Sep 27 08:03:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 271006
    FFGMPD
    NCZ000-SCZ000-271600-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1075
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    605 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

    Areas affected...coastal/eastern SC into central/southern NC

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 271004Z - 271600Z

    SUMMARY...Possible training and repeating of heavy rain associated
    with Tropical Storm Helene could produce localized flash flooding
    from central to coastal SC into central/southern NC through 16Z.
    The potential for 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates will exist.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 0950Z showed an outer rain
    band to the east of T.S. Helene focusing from the offshore waters
    of SC across the Charleston metro into central SC. Numerous cells
    were observed to be repeating across the region with brief
    training supporting MRMS-derived rainfall rates occasionally over
    1 in/hr. These cells were located with a very moist environment
    (2.3 to 2.6 inch precipitable water values) and MLCAPE of 500-1500
    J/kg via the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

    As Helene continues a northward to an eventual northwestward
    motion this morning, bands of heavy rain on the east side of
    Helene are expected to advance northward up the coast into the Pee
    Dee region and eventually central to southern NC. A general
    progressive motion is expected to these cells, but periods of
    stalling will be possible with the rainfall axis which could
    support locally higher rainfall rates, with 2-3 in/hr not out of
    the question. Some overlap of these rain bands with an axis of 2-5
    inches which impacted locations between CHS and MYR toward FLO.
    Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will be possible through 16Z.

    Otto

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

    ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 35667896 35087808 34027782 33397861 32557929
    32387970 32918039 34138092 35428010
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