• Milton More Warnings Issu

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tue Oct 8 07:50:00 2024
    595
    WTNT34 KNHC 081154
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
    700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

    ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
    EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

    ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR
    MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...

    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W
    ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
    ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard
    County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River,
    including the St. Johns River.

    A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida
    from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.

    A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of
    Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to
    Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte
    Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.

    The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
    south of Celestun.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
    River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
    * East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line
    northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Celestun to Rio Lagartos
    * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
    Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
    * Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
    northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
    * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
    * Dry Tortugas
    * Lake Okeechobee
    * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Rio Lagartos to Cancun
    * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
    * Lake Okeechobee
    * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
    * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
    Indian Pass
    * Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
    Line to Flamingo
    * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
    St. Mary's River

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
    St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
    during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
    depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
    located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
    protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
    other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
    instructions from local officials.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
    36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
    tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
    preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
    and property should be rushed to completion.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
    threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
    coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
    For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
    should monitor the progress of this system.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
    outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
    your national meteorological service.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
    near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving
    toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
    the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just
    north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of
    the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to
    make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
    intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
    dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
    miles (165 km).

    The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is
    929 mb (27.43 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

    STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
    to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
    Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
    surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

    The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
    normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
    moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
    following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
    the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
    Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
    Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
    Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
    Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
    Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
    Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
    Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
    Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
    accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
    depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
    and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
    specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
    National Weather Service forecast office.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
    inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
    Surge Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

    RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
    up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
    the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
    risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along
    with moderate to major river flooding.

    Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
    Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
    to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
    northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in
    Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
    in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to
    continue in tropical storm warning area today.

    Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
    coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
    storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
    are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on
    Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
    late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
    in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early
    Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of
    Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina
    coasts on Thursday.

    TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
    Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.

    SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
    affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
    likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather office.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
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