• Heavy Rain/Flooding CenFL

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Wed Oct 9 17:13:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 092022
    FFGMPD
    FLZ000-092345-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1099
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    422 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

    Areas affected...central FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 092018Z - 092345Z

    SUMMARY...Numerous areas of flash flooding are expected through
    00Z across the central FL Peninsula, including the I-4 corridor
    between Tampa and Orlando, and eastward toward Cape Canaveral.
    Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr along with 3-hr rainfall totals of
    3 to 6 inches are likely.

    DISCUSSION...Hurricane Milton continued to approach the west coast
    of FL at 20Z, located about 100 miles SW of Tampa per the 20Z
    update from NHC. Dry air wrapping around from the west into the
    southern side of the circulation has contributed to relatively
    warmer cloud tops on IR imagery in the southern semicircle.
    Reflectivity data from KTBW confirmed this with a lack of higher
    dBZ values south of the center. Meanwhile, several bands of heavy
    rain have been merging into a broader area of torrential rainfall
    between the eye and the southern portion of Tampa Bay. To the
    east, an impressive and long-lived outer rain band was located
    from eastern Lake Okeechobee into the I-4 corridor, near a remnant
    frontal boundary which extended west-east across the central
    Peninsula between roughly a SRQ to MLB line with the elevated
    portion of this convergence axis just north. The low level
    convergence axis delineated MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg to its
    south from values less than 500 J/kg to its north. Aloft, water
    vapor imagery inferred strongly diffluent/divergent flow aloft
    over the Peninsula between a strong jet max over the Mid-Atlantic
    coast and Milton.

    As Milton continues to approach the coast, while gradual weakening
    is still anticipated, an axis of very heavy rain is likely to set
    up just north of the center from the Tampa Bay vicinity, eastward
    toward Orlando and Cape Canaveral, following the low level
    convergence axis. This is confirmed via experimental WoFS output
    showing 50-80 percent probabilities of exceeding 5 inches from the
    19Z cycle over Pinellas County, and 40-60 percent probabilities
    farther east into Polk County through 00Z. Rainfall rates within
    this axis are expected to peak in the 2 to 3 in/hr range within
    areas of training but with localized hourly totals in excess of 3
    inches possible along with 3-hour totals in the 3-6 inch range.
    Given the expected location of this heavy rainfall axis
    overlapping high density population centers including Tampa and
    Orlando, significant areas of flash flooding with life-threatening
    impacts will be possible.

    Otto

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 29198115 29148080 28008013 27118000 26968067
    27228147 26898244 27358297 27828305 28478277
    28758243 28978184
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